Publications

List of publications

Gudbrandsdottir, I., Olafsdottir, G., Olafsdottir, A.H., Sverdrup, H.U., Bogason, S.G. (2018). The case of Arctic char land based aquaculture production in Iceland. Oral presentation at the 36th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Aug 6-10, 2018, Reykjavik

Abstract: This paper presents a work in progress with the objective of constructing a system dynamics model of the Arctic char industry in Iceland in an effort to identify policy interventions that can enhance its competitiveness. The modelling effort is based on the idea that a food system, composed of primary production, processing, retailing and consumption, can be thought of as an integration of supply-, value- and decision chains. This research effort forms a part of the ongoing Horizon 2020 project, VALUMICS, on food supply networks. In line with the objectives of the VALUMICS project, the aim is to further use the integrated mental model as a foundation for a simulation model that can be used to identify policy intervention opportunities, specifically focusing on the resilience, integrity and sustainability of food supply networks. Any policy intervention will need to take into consideration both the profit driven nature of a food system as well as the balancing effects of market dynamics and the limiting factors of environmental impact and regulations. A preliminary CLD of Arctic char farming is presented.

Olafsdottir, A.H., Gudbrandsdottir, I.Y., Sverdrup, H.U., Olafsdottir, G., Bogason, S.G. (2018) On modelling the price of beef and salmon using a fully dynamic approach. Poster presentation at the 36th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Aug 6-10, 2018, Reykjavik

Abstract: This study explains the food market mechanisms and derives price function curves for beef and salmon. The price mechanism model, that is part of the WORLD6 model, we have developed for global commodities like metals and materials that we have now adapted for food makes price endogenous to our integrated system dynamics models for industrial and food supply dynamics. The market mechanism has a number of feedback loops and especially the interplay between market amount, price, demand and profits that drive production and supply has been studied. The mechanism is included in the VALUMICS model for integrated supply-, decision- and value-chains in the food supply system. For the global system, the VALUMICS model will be integrated in the WORLD6 model. The model was preliminary tested on the global level for bulk world market supply of grain and coffee, without involving whole supply chains. The tests show that the obtained price functions follow a pattern earlier discovered for metals and materials. Price curves were determined for beef and salmon

Gudbrandsdóttir, I.Y., Olafsdottir, A.H., Sverdrup, H.U., Bogason, S. G., Olafsdottir, G., Stefansson, G. (2018)  Modeling of Integrated Supply-, Value- and Decision Chains within Food Systems. Proceedings in System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks 2018, p. 341-348, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18461/pfsd.2018.1827

Abstract: This paper presents a work in progress on the development of a mental model of a food system using system analysis. The aim is to be able to use this model to create a mathematical simulation model that can be used to identify policy intervention opportunities, specifically focusing on the resilience, integrity and sustainability of food supply networks. The traditional view of food systems as supply chains with a downstream physical flow of products is extended to include the associated upstream flow of money and the decision chains that link these flows. Central to this work is the idea that supply systems are driven by profit and regulated by market dynamics and that these factors generate the underlying feedback structure of the system. Studying the structure of such systems as integrated supply-, value- and decision chains has underscored their complexity and the need for further, more food system specific research.

Olafsdottir, A.H., Gudbrandsdóttir, I.Y., Sverdrup, H.U., Bogason, S. G., Olafsdottir, G., Stefansson, G. (2018)  Applying System Analysis and System Dynamics Modelling In Complex Research Projects – The Case Of VALUMICS  Proceedings in System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks 2018, p. 374-381  DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18461/pfsd.2018.1830

Abstract: VALUMICS is a Horizon 2020 project funded by the European Commission (2017-2021). The project structure is highly integrated and transdisciplinary, building on the expertise of over 30 specialists in various fields of research including knowledge integration through systems analysis and system dynamics modelling, food science, supply chain management, life cycle assessment, logistics, economics and social science. The aim of the project is to analyze the dynamics of food supply systems using a structural analysis including system analysis and perform system simulations using system dynamics. The VALUMICS research approach and the project design are explained and it is justified why system analysis is needed to obtain an understanding of the complex connections and interactions of the distinct parts of food systems. Patterns will be recognized and thus causes and effects of complex relations within the selected food supply system and networks will be identified. This understanding of the functioning of the system can in turn be used to identify policy interventions.